Authoritarian Power Sharing
All dictators confront threats to their survival in office. One strategy to mitigate threats is to share power with challengers. For example, a ruler can offer positions in the cabinet or legislature to co-opt members of mass societal opposition organizations or of different ethnic groups. Sharing power enhances the ruler’s commitment to promises. However, by bringing challengers closer to the center of power and bolstering their coercive capability, sharing power creates a threat-enhancing effect. High-ranking elites can exercise their ability to stage a coup to remove the leader, rather than using this leverage as a latent threat to prevent the ruler from transgressing on promised spoils. The dual consequences of power sharing are foundational for understanding authoritarian politics and regime survival. I develop the theoretical mechanisms across several applied game theory articles, and I also provide evidence from post-colonial Africa and historical Europe. A longer overview of the project is available here.
Published
A Comment on Powell and Formal Models of Power Sharing
Journal of Theoretical Politics, 2024, 36(2): 212–233.
JOURNAL LINK • POWELL ARTICLE • MEMORIAM AT POLITICAL SCIENCE TODAY AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
Authoritarian Power Sharing: Concepts, Mechanisms, and Strategies
(with Anne Meng and Robert Powell) Annual Review of Political Science, 2023, 26: 153–173.
Stronger Challengers can Cause More (or Less) Conflict and Institutional Reform
(with Andrew Little) Comparative Political Studies, 57(3): 486–505.
JOURNAL LINK • APPENDIX • TWITTER
A Theory of External Wars and European Parliaments
International Organization, 2023, 77(1): 102–143. (with Brenton Kenkel)
JOURNAL LINK • APPENDIX • SLIDES • TWITTER
Reframing the Guardianship Dilemma: How the Military’s Dual Disloyalty Options Imperil Dictators
American Political Science Review, 2022, 116(4): 1425–1442.
JOURNAL LINK • APPENDIX • REPLICATION DATA • TWITTER
Power Sharing and Authoritarian Stability: How Rebel Regimes Solve the Guardianship Dilemma
(with Anne Meng) American Political Science Review, 2022, 116(4): 1208–1225.
JOURNAL LINK • MAIN APPENDIX • CODING APPENDIX • REPLICATION DATA • SLIDES • TWITTER
Strategic Power Sharing: Commitment, Capability, and Authoritarian Survival
Journal of Politics, 2022, 84(2): 1226–1232.
JOURNAL LINK • NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY • APPENDIX • TWITTER
The Dictator's Power-Sharing Dilemma: Countering Dual Outsider Threats
American Journal of Political Science, 2021, 65(2): 510–527.
JOURNAL LINK • APPENDIX • NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Ethnic Violence in Africa: Destructive Legacies of Pre-Colonial States
International Organization, 2019, 73(3): 645–683.
JOURNAL LINK • APPENDIX • REPLICATION DATA • NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY
In progress
Formal Theory: Three Pillars of Authoritarian Power
(with Scott Tyson) Prepared for the Oxford Handbook of Authoritarian Politics, forthcoming 2024
Violent Origins and Authoritarian Order: Divergent Trajectories after Successful Rebellions
(with Killian Clarke and Anne Meng) R&R, American Political Science Review
COVERAGE IN THE NEW YORK TIMES
The Threat-Enhancing Effect of Authoritarian Power Sharing
R&R, American Journal of Political Science
The Autocrat’s Commitment Problem with Endogenous Windows of Opportunity
Born This Way: Authoritarian Regime Origins and Survival
(with Killian Clarke and Anne Meng)